Forex Trader - Learning the Secrets Behind Forex Trading

Forex trader is a word you are going to here for a very long time when you enter the forex market. The forex market is by far the largest market in the world and over 2 trillion dollars are traded daily on this market! It is hard to imagine what 2 trillion dollars actually is. This 2 trillion dollars accounts for large financial institutions and multi-national corporations trading on the forex market daily. Small single investors are finally emerging after decades on the forex market.

Predict forex is something that everyone is trying to do these days and going to every great length to become the best forex trader possible. Most people dumb thousands and thousands of dollars a year on expense forex trading software, forex online platform trading, forex loan online trading, and spending way to much money learning someone else's useless forex rate exchange when they should be selling or buying their forex currency.

Now there are many great things you should know about the forex market. For starters, it is a unregulated investing market with no barriors or walls. Your earning potential on this market is unlimited and also the market is NOT government regulated like the stock market. The forex market is open 24 hours a day, 5 days a week so you can forex trade based on your schedule, not restricted to a regulated time. The stock market only allows stock traders to trade between the hours of 9 am - 5 pm Monday - Friday. Those hours are horrible especially if you work a Monday-Friday 9 am - 5 pm job yourself. When are you going to find time to stock trade? Exactly, you can't. But trust me you will never want to trade stock again once you find out how valuable forex trading is and how much income you potentially can earn from such a small investment.

When you get started in the forex market you really need to consider a few things?

How much forex training do you have? If you answer this question as little or none, you need to sign up for a free account on online forex websites. You will be able to create a free account to trade forex currency as if it was real money. You can earn "play money" and make the same decisions as if you were using real money. You can get a feel of your earning potential right away and see if you are on the right track to success. If you are not earning money right away do not get discouraged and give up! It will come to you over time. Just like anything new, you have to work at it and give it time to become a forex trading expert.

Once you become a forex trading expert your earning potential could rise above 6 figures like mine did. I did not need any fancy broker forex for all my trading or rely on forex software or a forex system to risk all my money (over $200,000). Would you like a forex system risking $200,000 and it is not a real human? You have the potential to be the best forex trader out there with a little studying of the market and picking up a real solid forex ebook on forex trading. Stop procrastinating and take action now!

Forex Secrets - Support and Resistance Levels in Forex Market

Support and resistance are the known cornerstones in Forex technical, wherein:

1. a current Forex rate (CFR) is surrounded by levels of:

a). resistance being superior to CFR;

b). support being inferior to CFR.

2. a level breakthrough triggers a leap to a consecutive support/resistance;

3. a false breakthrough is responsible for a rate backstroke (say, from resistance to support).

Thus, having data on resistance and support levels and being armed with R/S true/false criteria, a trader grows faultless-entry skilled to ensure smooth level-to-level trading.

To be found below is a graphic drawing of a flat followed by an R/S up/down breakthrough.

The chart 1. (For view picture see notes in end of article)

In actual sample GBPUSD trade dated January, 31, 2006 the support breakthrough has triggered a bullish in-session trend.

Simple, isn't it? Affirmative at a glance, but 95% of traders losing their forex deposits are calling for natural questions:

1. What's the reason, the world traders are getting entangled in so a seemingly simple regularity?

2. What's the way of correct detection of R/S levels for currencies to use to jet off from?

3. What attributes are inherent to true/false breach differentiation?

It is, thus, to be concluded that a trader will never achieve steady FX gains unless the answer is found to the above three simple questions.

CLASSICAL BOOKS ON RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS

Forex scholars' books, when analyzed, are giving grounds why 95% of traders turn deposit-killers. The point is that under different technical scholars:

a). fairly different understanding is being attached to support and resistance;

b). no distinct criteria (except Demark's technique) is in service to finding a support and a resistance;

c). there is no clear-cut interfacing between R/S levels on different timeframes.

Below is sort of understanding classification:

1. A. Elder. R/S are understood by SOME SCHOLARS to be horizontal lines drawn along price highs and lows

support and resistance are horizontal (or almost horizontal) lines linking several minimums (maximums).

The chart 2. Support and resistance (For view picture see notes in end of article)

b). J. MURPHY also indicates that "points 2 and 4 represent uptrend support levels. The figure depicts uprising support and resistance under an uptrend with points 2 and 4 being support levels which use to be coincident with earlier lows. Points 1 and 3 indicate resistance levels, which use to be coincident with earlier highs" (see: "Technical analysis of the Futures Markets"

Fig. 3a and 3b. Uptrend and downtrend support-resistance levels (For view picture see notes in end of article)

2. SOME SCHOLARS believe support-resistance to be sloped lines drawn along price highs and lows (trend lines, actually) as below:

Fig. 4. Trend line-fashion support-resistance pattern (For view picture see notes in end of article)

a). T. DEMARK

Fig. 5. Bid pivot points (TD-points) building up a resistance level (For view picture see notes in end of article)

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Forex Secrets - Delusion Number 2 - Who Prompts Forex Quotation to Traders?

The delusion conceptually propounds that traders operate at a spontaneous FOREX market (as stipulated by B. Williams, A. Elder, E. Nayman, etc.). But it is not the case. Traders do their job inside a well-organized and controlled currency exchange market, governed by the Consortium of the world's largest banks.

Hence, who is pushing the currencies up and down, who defines trends, corrective actions and flats?

And, who, ultimately, places a trend at a point, where the majority of traders are happy to think they have saddled the wave and are about to win an enormous profit! Now! Not to be scared! Not to close the position! Not to be satisfied with a minor profit! Later on we will discuss that sort of stupidity. Thus, one persists to continue long in spite of more and more degrading profit. Shortly, the loss starts growing with light velocity! Are you familiar with the situation?

Well, who has reversed the rate?

And who generally tugs currency rates?

Tugging is surely centralized. Compare on-line quotes of several Dealers or banks to find out that they are per second coincident. Do each bank's traders act in such synchronism, that even not seeing each other, they place identical orders so that quotation is in 100% agreement? NOTHING IS A MIRACLE HERE!

But prior to further explanation, we will listen to Bill Williams, the FOREX scholar (Trading Chaos, Ch. 6): "...let us trace a trend formation process. Earlier, the market and the market trading venue did constitute a single physical space. Majority of large grain traders were concentrated on the "floor". Their orders involved amounts, sufficient to move the market; they enjoyed better control over the market than at present. During the latest 20 years markets have grown worldwide. Now, not only "Purina Ralstone", "Kellog" and other prominent commercial associations seek hedging their cash assets transactions. So do millions of the world's minor profiteers and farmers, competing with them in anticipation of perspective grain price fluctuations? This fact also implies strong potential for traders with nowadays, trends not being constructed on the floor. The latter mainly ensures the market liquidity by way of tackling "outer orders".

The fact, that today's trends are formed rather "outside the floor" than "on the floor", as before, enables one to trace further market tendencies with trade volume being the key thereto. Our only on-line information is restricted to tick volume, time and price. Tick volume constitutes a number of price changes per a certain time period. It is not at all a number of traded contracts. Multiple researches revealed no significant difference between actual and tick volume. Using a tick volume, we may suppose, that it represents actual volume. It is a real-time volume, thus being our key to what's going on in "trading pits".

Two basic elements are organic to FOREX trading: brokers on the floor and remote traders. Local brokers constitute staff, executing orders, thus earning their salaries and/or commissions. They don't possess money to be at their disposal. They are order executors. Their prospects are not burdened by prices, they getting for the orders management.

Remote traders use their own money. They have to pay the price out of their own pockets, unless they are getting a good one. Traders have to be much superior in skill to brokers since they independently take their own decisions, while the broker's job is to follow the others' orders.

Remote traders are supposed to support the market by way of taking its opposite side. As a rule, they are not at all crazy about any long-term transactions. Quite a few remote traders have been participants to our private training programs, and it is to be admitted that a 10-minute long transaction may seem quite a long-term one for some of them.

Think back to the fact that trends are built up of orders, delivered to the floor from outside, but not of long-term positions entered by remote traders. Since the traders' job is to take the side opposite to the orders arriving from outside, they have no prospects of trading in between themselves. They follow your money. We are emphasizing again, that tick volume is our key to understanding what's going on in the Forex Market. Remote traders do not contribute any significant volume to trading, which might result from dealing with similar traders on the floor. Trends emerge from incoming orders. That is why we are to be certain about when and in what amount the outer order is supplied to the floor. It is presented via a tick volume change".

So, we, traders, turn out to be price locomotives, don't we? And brokers on the floor just allocate and execute order, incoming from us, don't they? And on April, 1, 2005 they all (meaning: we all) together decided to swivel the trend and to stay short against all the rules, news and common sense... I wonder if the scholar ashamed or not?

As regards the above quotation, I have chanced to hear a single argument in favor of Bill Williams (I guess you understood for what sake I've cited it in detail): it all pertains to the futures markets; we neither read nor use the above at Forex. Strange enough, these are the arguments of Williams's advocates, but not of Williams himself.

This book is actually intended for both: futures markets and Forex Market. That's why pictures taken from both the markets are so mixed up and the author never differentiates between the Technical Analysis methods thereof. Thus, either the author does not trace any difference between the two markets, or he is not eager to reveal it to the reader.

And neither in the foreword, nor in the remarks did Williams and his publishers refer to the fact that something of "Trading Chaos" is inapplicable to FOREX, and thus should not be made use of by a trader at FOREX.

I have repeatedly come through this peculiarity of Williams (correct specific case method definition being extended to a wider coordinates scale) and it actually induced me to write this book. In all and all, the methods and advice, absolutely true and correct for a PART of Forex Market are claimed by Williams to be universal for the WHOLE of Forex Market without being demonstrated where the above is effective and where it isn't.

The same is being done by Williams's opponents and advocates, who visualize the portion of Forex where his methods are operable only. As different from analysts and Williams's bibliographers, TRADERS require much stronger to realize a demarcation with pro-Williams trading to the one side thereof and with counter-Williams trading to the other one.

Logically there comes a question: what might be added to Williams's indicators in order to turn them effective at the point where they are presently ineffective (see details in chapter on the Williams Alligator).

And now we are getting back to the issue of who supplies traders with FOREX rates quotation, bearing in mind that it's us, traders, who exercise rates movement in accordance with Williams's standpoint. Millions of traders have actually been studying FOREX by virtue of the "Trading House" and it is really worth studying. This is one of the most interesting and instructive editions whose repeated reading each time brings about something new and useful.

However, in some passages it smells being custom tailored. Is Williams ignorant of the fact that there is no single FOREX exchange and there's no single trading venue or floor? And that Pacific, Asian, European and American session classification is arbitrary?

Did You see currency rates move, while there's a day off in the USA with the banks closed? So did I. So, who has made up his mind in the USA to trade on the floor on a day off?
Then, who prompts rates, who formulates trends and turns them with no objective reason for the rate to swivel and to rush in a direction, not being requisite at all?

Here is the answer, as provided by No. 11, 2002 "FOREX Profiteer" magazine's article by Nadezhda Larina "Electronic Broker Systems at FOREX market", reading: "... an FOREX dealing "Electronic Broking Service (EBS)" enjoys wide popularity with the extra-exchange inter-bank FOREX market. It has been developed by the Consortium of largest FOREX trading participant banks in association with "Quotron" informatics expert company and launched in 1993. Presently EBS incorporates 13 world's largest market-maker banks, viz,: BN AMRO Bank, Bank of America, Barclays Capital, Citibank, Commerzbank, Credit Suisse First Boston, HSBC Bank PLC, J.P. Morgan Chase and Co.Lehman Brothers, Royal Bank of Scotland, S-E Banken, UBS AG along with Japanese Minex Corp., established by a Consortium of Japanese Banks in a joint manner with KDD Japanese telecommunications company and Dow Jones Telerate.

EBS offers a completely integrated range of dealing services for the professional inter-bank market, being a leading anonymous inter-bank FOREX trading electronic dealer. It is currently used by over 2500 dealers in 850 world banks and yields a trade turnover of about USD80 billion daily.

See there also: "Three greatest FOREX dealers - Citibank, J.P. Morgan Chase and Deutsche Bank, together with Reuters Group PLC) have started Atriax system in June, 2001.The latter terminated the operations in spring, 2002 after having failed to stand the competition.

Can you imagine a monster machine, capable of forcing three world's largest banks - Citibank, J.P. Morgan Chase and Deutsche Bank to abandon their business plans! Or capable of reversing the EURUSD from 1.3660 to 1.1865 and thus instantaneously executing orders of all the world's traders, going and standing short! And thus within, April-June, 2005, buying the EUR from traders at USD1.36, 1.29, 1.20, 1.19, etc.

Do you see the loss? Watching the EUR slip 1700 pts after having bought it at 1.36... But, possibly, there is no loss at all?

All of Larina's basic provisions have actually found confirmation 2 years later in the UK "Financial Times" article by Jennifer Hughes: "A PC occupying trading floor" (see it on Financial Times 2004).

It underlines that during the precedent 2 years the Consortiums turnover has grown by extra daily USD20 billion thus currently stretching to USD100 billion, whereas the most prominent internet-based trading platforms ensure the average of USD15-20 billion daily turnover.

So, let's jump to some conclusions:

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Forex Secrets - Developing The "Anti-Chaos" Trading Strategy And Tactics At Forex Market (Part II)

(See beginning of this article under name Forex Secrets - Developing the "anti-chaos" trading strategy and tactics at Forex market (Part I)

It is horrible to imagine what could happen to USD rate at the spontaneous market in this case. At the controllable market of Forex USD rate would fall down just by 1-2%.

I hope that my opponents, who deny the existence of a system controlling Forex market, do remember the elementary economical laws. The spontaneous market is a barometer that establishes the real price of goods on the basis of the demand and supply (in the given case, it is the real rate of exchange of any national currency).

The Episode #2 . The hurricane "Katrina" and the flood in USA on September 7, 2005. USD rate stably increases. Chronicle of events.

As the result of the dam (dike) debacle, several states in USA become submerged. The industry, agriculture and transport network were destroyed. There started panic not only among common inhabitants but among officials of various ranks as well. Hundreds and thousands of people perished. There were cases of looting. Many looters (and, maybe, just desperately hungry and thirsty people) were shot by soldiers of USA army. The government of USA declared this hurricane to be a disaster on a national scale. For the first time a new plan of civic defense was introduced (see "BBC. The total chronicle of events").

"Katrina" was bringing USA to ruin. Senators from Louisiana asked $250 milliards from the federal budget for getting over "Katrina" after-effects.

Thus, it is an illustrative example of the greatest natural cataclysms in USA in the last decades. Even the poorest country in the world - Haiti - provided the financial help for USA ($ 36 thousands). The help of Ukraine made 1 million of hrivnias , etc.

What did happen to USD rate at the controllable Forex market? Notwithstanding all economical laws and even against the common sense, USD rate increased!

Chart 8.7. EURO/USD pair movement (For view picture see notes in end of article)

Chart 8.8. GBP/USD pair movement (For view picture see notes in end of article)

Brief conclusions for traders .

As I think, the thesis that Forex has turned from the spontaneous market to the controllable one does not need further proofs. Hence, traders must introduce amendments into strategy and tactic of their work at Forex.

What are the conclusions, significant for traders, logically follow from these facts?

Under the new conditions of the controllable market, a trader must not follow the "crowd" (flock). As B. Williams, A. Elder and many other authors have fairly emphasized, the "crowd" pushes the price at any spontaneous market. On the contrary, at the organized Forex market orders must be opened in advance of Consortium's interests!

I try to find the core of a good sense in each technique of the successful work at Forex . Is it necessary to rediscover the well-known principles? There are many prosperous traders who openly and honestly present their methods of gaining profits at Forex . If their techniques are successful, it means that these authors have a thorough grasp of the problem in its essence.

However, in practice, each of the techniques sometimes brings profits, whereas in other cases it is disadvantageous. And it does not matter, whether this technique is developed by B. Williams or by a not celebrated but a successful trader.

Conclusion #1. It is necessary to clearly delineate the domains where a given technique does work and where it fails (as well as the corresponding reasons). In such a way we can clearly understand what of the method by a given trader is worthwhile to be used - as well as how and when to make advantage of it for our work at Forex .

Conclusion #2 . Your trading system must not be just a mixture (farrago) of various techniques. This rule is especially important for the beginners. After reading heaps of books on Forex , all of them make complaints about "such a mess in their heads instead of enlightenment".

Conclusion #3. A trader must develop his own trading system. In order to gain profit, the following steps must be taken:

a. you choose just any technique developed by any author-trader (e.g., mine or B. Williams's, or somebody's else);

b. you must get used to work with the demo account according to this technique to such extent of automatism that you "sense' it as your own initial (original) trading system of the work at Forex

c. Only after this you should start to study additional literature. You must clearly see what pointes, "borrowed" from other authors, can help you personally to work at Forex , to improve your trading system for getting extra profits.

Objectiveness of Forex turning from the spontaneous market into the controllable one. The pattern of this process

Any profitable business transits from the spontaneous to the controllable one. It is an objective stage in the evolution of business undertakings.

In each branch of a big and super profitable business the initial stage of the chaotic competitive straggle is already has been passed through (petroleum, gas, ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy, precious metals, arms traffic, etc.). At present all these areas are definitely divided between the principal participants. That is, there exist certain financially-industrial groupings, well-controllable and protected from intrusion of a concurrent.

The same concerns the biggest and most conservative area of business - i.e., its financial branch, the world market of currency exchange included. Can it be otherwise? Can "Chaos" rule the market where the turnover exceeds $1 trillion per day? Can the biggest banks and governments depend on "Chaos" - i.e., be dependable of the "off-floor" traders - such as me and you? Can these organizations be worried about the direction in which we (traders) could turn the trend of all national currencies at this or that second? It is ridiculous to imagine!

To realize the power of the grouping that has organized the "game" of Forex all over the world, we should refer to the thesis from the journal "Speculator". In June, 2001 the three biggest dealers at Forex market - Citibank, J.P. Morgan Chase ? Deutsche Bank - together with Reuters Group PLC had started up the system Atriax . However, the latter did not meet competition and stopped operations in spring, 2002. The author of the paper just hinted that even the alliance of the 3 biggest world banks could not make any serious competition to Organizer of the "game" at Forex (to Consortium or somebody else).

In this connection, how one can take on trust the principal thesis by B. Williams concerning "Trading chaos" that rules Forex? What's important, all methods of this author issue from this postulate. The following conclusion by B. Williams's also raises doubts. He states that trends are created by traders, whereas brokers just realize these trends and place traders' orders. According to B. Williams, the fact that now trends are made rather "off-floor" than "on floor" (as it was earlier) permits detecting what next will happen at the market (see "Trading Chaos", Chapter 6).

So, to what extent can B. Williams's techniques be correct if their basis is principally erroneous? Let us enumerate the fundamental mistakes made in "Trading Chaos". It is necessary to facilitate understanding of the techniques and practical recommendations given by B. Williams concerning the work at Forex .

1. B. Williams sees Forex as a spontaneous market, uncontrollable by anybody. According to this author, it is chaos but not an organized system that would have its own strategy, tactic, techniques, goals, methods of fraud, etc.

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